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彩票下载app送彩金:The reason why the A-share stocks continue to fall

时间:2018/6/1 18:35:35  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: stock index trend is still sluggish, closing slightly down 0.66% at 3100 points intraday won and lost, to close at 3075.14 points;GEM meanw...

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stock index trend is still sluggish, closing slightly down 0.66% at 3100 points intraday won and lost, to close at 3075.14 points; GEM mean weaker trend, closing fell 1.96%, retreated to 1700 points mark an integer, to close at 1709.55 points. The total transaction volume of the two cities was 375.5 billion yuan. The industry sector showed a general decline, with brokers, steel and coal sectors turning red in the market.

For the broader market outlook, agencies have expressed their opinions.

letter and Capital: The reason CSI A-Share weaker shocks analysis

A shares on Friday formally incorporated into the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which is the first official post since June 2013 launch A-share MSCI Emerging Markets Index into the MSCI global consultation Incorporation is another symbolic moment for the opening up of the Chinese capital market. From the market that day, the market did not result in the emergence of active trading, contrary overall showing shock weakening trend in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed lower for the A-share market, with the three major indexes if K-Line running track, the market is clearly not the MSCI Zhou Yin It can affect the short-term. from the market volatility of recent weakness, we believe that although their influence external factors, internal factors but is still a major factor.

day operation of the market showed that: after the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower shock downstream. Although it once turned red during the session, it was unable to do so in the end, and the market ended up closing the green. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3075.14 points, a drop of 20.33 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10169.35 points, down 126.38 points. The FBMACE plunged 34.19 points to close at 1709.55 points. In terms of trading volume, the total transaction volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Shenzhen on the same day was 375.535 billion yuan, and the market was poorly traded. Judging from the trajectory of the Shanghai KLCI Week K line, the weekly line is the trend of two consecutive falls, the market situation is more severe.

Judging from today's market, the market has seen a general decline, with close to 30 stocks in the two cities and weighted index stocks weakening. If we look at the trajectories of individual stocks, we mentioned in the previous period whether the market is innovative and low-stock spread. The recent trend of proliferation has been on the one hand because of market issues. The key to the problem is still in the stock market game, where stocks are difficult to support. Especially poor stocks, high valuations and leveraged stocks.

If we look at the changes in the market's actual chips, on the one hand, the siphon effect of new stocks, especially single-corner companies, the fall in such listed stocks is expected to affect the market, chip prices, especially high-valuation chips, increase the risk of short-term investors , Poor investor psychological expectations. On the other hand, the pressure to lift the ban on the market has not diminished, and the impact on the market stock market is even more pronounced. According to "Securities Times" statistics on May 29, statistics show that nearly 400 stocks in the next three months will have restricted shares lifted, and the market value will be calculated at nearly 960 billion yuan according to the latest closing price. In addition, ABC Refinancing Actually, in the market of stock games, the distribution of market capital stocks is differentiated, which ultimately leads to downward movement of the stock center of gravity. Historically, the stock price of giant network , 360, etc. have experienced a significant decline after the bust. Therefore, the valuation risk of new stocks will have a large impact on the A-share market. In addition, the siphon effect of the new economic stocks or some heavyweight stocks on the market is more obvious, which may lead to further differentiation of the Chinese stock market.

Overall, today MSCI point in time, the market was not ideal, but some heavyweight and pre-strong stocks weakened, or every show bullish holdings of behavior; key market weakness, our research suggests that it is still It is the change of the internal factors of . The key to the market game or the key to market improvement is the quantity energy. The current amount can show that it is still a stock game and there is a further amount of declining trend. Therefore, in terms of investment strategy, for investors, in the market where there is a clear game of stock capital, the reference of trading volume is the top one, and at the same time pays close attention to the conversion of related internal and external factor signals, and the change of internal market factors is even more critical.

Xiangcai Securities: Market bearish trend has formed Can the market stabilize quickly?

Today, the two stock indexes opened lower and opened up higher. After 10:38 hours, they saw the highest point of the day and continued to decline until noon. In the afternoon, the stock index was mainly declining by inertial shocks; the hot topics were: daily chemicals, securities, coal, The East Asia free trade, flammable ice, iron and steel, household goods, gas supply and heating, and water services sectors performed well. Overall, today's market has experienced significant adjustments.

Everybody has different ideas and logics for investment. However, no matter what method is used, it is necessary to have principles to support and use this principle as a punctuality point for continuous cultivation. Only by persisting in the past can we achieve better growth. The cultivation of this habit is the basis for the long-term achievement of the investment.

Just because of the above understanding, for the recent judgment of the broader market, Xiangcai Securities Goldfinger Advisory Group Fan Bo reminded investors of two important principles:

1. Focus on whether the stock index can reach 3090. Formed, if it breaks down, it will enter into adjustment again;

2. Focus on the downward pressure on the downtrend of the GEM (399102), the pressure on the 2300 point on the rail;

For the above two principles, when the broader market is running narrower and narrower, On May 28, we put forward the point of view of "A shares entering the major conversion cycle." On May 30th, we broke our bottom line principle. The index of the stock index was 3090. We clearly stated that the balance was broken, and we looked at less and less and wait and see.

Looking back at the two days of the session, after the 30th plunge, yesterday's broader market rebounded, but we remained calm and offered the view that “market sentiment recovery will take time,” suggesting that investors wait patiently and wait for new opportunities. After you appear, do your best. Today's stock index fell again and the stocks in the stocks fell sharply. This shows again that the market sentiment is still unstable, which is in line with our judgment.

To sum up: After the initial balance was broken, short-term trends formed and the market's re-stabilization could not be formed in a day or two. It is recommended that investors continue to wait and see and wait patiently for the new market to stabilize again.

Source: Mood fluctuations should not be lifted under the short-term operation. Impulse

Today, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and oscillated slightly. It basically stopped falling at half position on the K line yesterday. It is a strong rebound signal. From the perspective of the daily level, the short-term KDJ indicator immediately below the metal fork, the previous mention if the successful implementation of the Jincha trend, indicating that the height of the market rebound is expected to rise further, so follow-up to break the 5th line to cover the gap is not difficult. The double bottomed index is expected to return to 3200 points. The GEM is relatively weak, but it has not reached a new low. It lacks a heavy volume Yangxian to change the pattern. It also needs to shake down and build a solid foundation, and use time for space. In view of the fact that the current market is relatively affected by the influence of the external environment and the mood fluctuations are also significantly raised, in this context, short-term operations must not be too impulsive, focusing on the stepping-back confirmation after the rebound of the index.

Everbright Securities : the possibility of deep down is unlikely, focusing on consumer and technology

economic data help to improve market sentiment. May manufacturing PMI was 51.9%, market expectations of 51.4%, the second highest position since 2017, second only to last September. May power generation coal consumption by 16.5% year on year, blast furnace operating rates continue to rise, cement and steel and other industrial products prices. In the context of the policy of expanding domestic demand, economic growth steady decline in the probability of large, small probability of a downward cliff.

Great Game strengthen G2 double play risk, short-term attention to the defense sector configuration. Chinese economic cycle weakness, normalization of US monetary policy, under normal trade friction background of the Great Game, the overall equity market performance, although it is difficult to improve, but there is a structural opportunities. The cyclical plate generally fell sharply in the G2 double killing, with the upstream plate falling more deeply; the consumer sector showed defensiveness in the early stages of double killing. Food and beverage, , medicine and other defensiveness were better; TMT appeared following the early fall. Sexuality fell, but it showed better defensiveness at the time of consumer retreat; financial basically showed a strong pro-cyclicality.

Valuation is low, falling is an investment opportunity. From a valuation point of view, compared with US stocks, A shares have a lower "center of gravity" and they are more stable. At present, the major stock indexes PETTM and PB have fallen to 40% or even lower quotations, and the market is unlikely to continue its deep decline. In so-called value investing, it is in the midst of mud and sand to find opportunities for falling out. Therefore, we are not pessimistic. Even if the Shanghai Composite Index falls below 3000, it is not worth panic. It is precisely the long-term machine.

The big game under the new pattern means that the market presents high fluctuation characteristics. In the short term, we need to focus on whether the United States accelerates interest rate hikes, whether infrastructure investment can be stabilized, and whether the risk of debt defaults is controllable. Before the three things are not known, it is suggested that the defense should be focused, and the structure should focus on the consumption of white horses: As a shield and a branch-creating leader, we can focus on defensive products such as food and beverage tourism, food and beverages in the short term; in the 2-cycle product, we recommend focusing on oil and gas industry chains that benefit from oil price ; The value revaluation logic of brokerage leaders is more certain and it is recommended to focus on the long-term allocation opportunities of leading brokerage firms.

Essence Securities: The GEM Index leads the hopes of the A-share market in the second half of the year.

The 2018 medium-term strategy meeting of Essence Securities was held yesterday in Chengdu. Securities Business Strategy Analyst Chen Guo stated that the Shanghai Index entered the adjustment after the initial shock and the market worried about uncertainties such as financial tightening, and is still mainly based on defense. It is expected that the short-term board will be further advanced in the second half of the year, and the A-share market will also bottom out. In addition, the GEM index is still the hope to lead the A-share market in the second half of the year.

Chen Guo stated that the current A-shares' overall profitability has been slowed down steadily, with multiple phase-inhibiting factors, and the overall lack of trend opportunities. The earnings trend of the GEM index has improved modestly. The relative valuation is attractive and the policy has strengthened the direction of the short board.

Chen Guo believes that globalization has encountered slowdowns and challenges. Uncertainty has risen. China is firmly moving toward making up for short-cuts and industrial upgrading, and technological manufacturing is the deterministic direction. Judging from the experience of the United States, the downturn in the financial cycle can be an opportunity to accelerate the rise of the new economic investment cycle. In the United States in the late 1980s, the crisis in the storage and lending economy and the financial cycle in the 1990s saw an overall downturn, and capital flows to the new economy. Total factor productivity increased by 12.3%, the fastest increase since the 1960s.

Chen Guo stated that the company is already the main force of China's research and development. In 2016, 76.1% of the total R\u0026D expenditures of the society came from the corporate sector, an increase of 21.1 percentage points from the 55% in 2002, while the government’s funds accounted for 20%. Compared with 30.9% in 2002, it was down 10.9 percentage points. As of the end of 2016, the scale of fixed assets in the high-tech industry reached 2.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, which was 6.1 percentage points faster than the growth rate of fixed assets investment of (8.1%) in the same period, accounting for 3.8% of fixed assets investment. .

Chen Guo also believes that the country’s investment in the new economy has continued to increase, and 11 national special funds have been established. In addition, Evergrande, Ali, Tencent and others have stated that they will invest in strategic emerging industries and promote technological progress. The promotion of short-settlement boards is a definitive direction, and the new economic investment cycle is beginning to open, which will lead the A-share market out of the difficulties.

Chen Guo believes that the current A-share investment can be based on defense, enhanced configuration , essential consumer goods and petrochemicals, etc., wait for turnaround and turn to offense, triggering incidents, including credit risk brought liquidity easement and so on. In addition, with the improvement of the earnings of the semi-annual report and the third quarter report of the growth stocks sector, we have enhanced the deployment of military, computer, new energy vehicles and smart manufacturing.

Fidelity International: A-share valuation has become more reasonable, optimistic about high-end manufacturing.

The first batch of A-shares was officially included in the MSCI International Index on June 1. Fidelity International analysts said that this move is expected to attract nearly $4 billion in passive funds and approximately $15 billion in active investment funds to invest in the A-share market. After the A-share market has been adjusted, the valuation has become more reasonable, and the high-end manufacturing industry and the big financial sector have been optimistic for a long time.

According to statistics, after the A-shares are included, there will be some changes in the industry distribution of the MSCI China Index. Among them, the proportion of the financial industry rose from 22.7% to 33.3%, industrial from 4% to 13.1%, daily consumption rose from 2.2% to 11.1%, which will make the MSCI index more able to reflect the structure of the Chinese economy.

Fidelity International stated that in the long term, after more and more international investors join, the performance of the A-share market will become closer to the international market. The participation rate of overseas institutional investors will gradually increase, which will gradually institutionalize the A-share market.

Fidelity International believes that the company’s stock with three elements will be favored in the future. These three factors are strong business model, good corporate governance and stable balance sheet.

When it comes to the Chinese economy and the A-share market, Fidelity International stated that the current path of economic recovery has not changed much. It is expected that the policy side will continue to focus on expanding domestic demand and adjusting the economic structure. The risk of A-shares' current decline is limited. The favorable factors include the maintenance of overall price stability, the rise of a new round of manufacturing capital expenditures, the continued robustness of the consumer market, the more reasonable valuation of the A-share market after adjustment, and the more rational investor expectations.

In addition, the return of the CDR (China Depositary Receipts) will provide investors with more quality investment targets. The companies most likely to be the first to return to A-shares include new economy stocks, overseas-listed stocks and stocks with large market capitalization. The impact of the introduction of CDRs on the A-share market includes the optimization of the A share structure, the introduction of more new economic investment targets, and the optimization of the issuance system. In the long run, attracting outstanding global companies to list in China will further open up global investment space for Chinese investors.

Fidelity International also stated that in the long run, high-end manufacturing, financial sector, Baima consumer stocks, medicine and cycle stocks are expected to outperform the broader market, and companies that value ESG (environment, society and corporate governance) are expected to outperform the medium to long term Market.

CSC : downside limited market, innovation has become the main line of the year

a recent decline in market analysis reasons:

Italy populist Five Star Movement and the far-right Northern League will form a cabinet, which makes possible this year, Italy 9 Month ahead of the election. If the two extreme political parties get support, Italy will face a government that opposes the euro and expands its fiscal position, thereby undermining stability in the euro zone. Against this background, the Italian government bond interest rate soared, and the European market was severely affected. On May 29-30, the global financial market continued to be turbulent, and the Chinese market and the Hong Kong market were also affected to some extent.

From the perspective of the domestic economy, China's economy is still undergoing a smooth transition, credit crunch and de-leveraging factors have reduced the market's risk appetite. The risk appetite of the Chinese market has recently declined, and the market is relatively weak.

II. After-Market Investment Strategy:

First, the frequently occurring risks have gradually affected the Chinese market, and the Black Swan has gradually been priced by the market. Therefore, it is unlikely that the latter will continue to decline.

Second, from the policy perspective, the coordinated development of the stock market, bond market, foreign exchange market and property market is the focus of the central government's work. A stable capital market is conducive to the Chinese market to promote reform, opening up, and innovation. In general, the risks before China's financial market are still controllable, and deleveraging is still in order and there will be no major risks in the later period. Thirdly, from the perspective of China's economy, it is in a process of continuous and stable decline. Innovation has become the main line of the market throughout the year. The repeated recommendation of “growth \u0026gt; consumption \u0026gt; financial \u0026 real estate \u0026gt; cycle” has repeatedly been confirmed, and investors are advised to pay attention.

Guotai Junan : uncertainties digestion period, to the main shock

stand at the present time, driven by market risk sentiment eased window repair or has entered the end, the market will be repeated shocks based. In this situation, the behaviors of different market risk appetites among different subjects will be significantly different. The investors with higher risk appetite will understand the uncertain factors more as short-term disturbances, the trading behavior is more radical, and the risk appetite Low investors attach great importance to the influence of uncertainties on the market, and trading behaviors tend to be defensive.

For the current market, overseas uncertainties cannot be ignored. Crude oil prices, dollar returns, etc., may continue to affect market risk appetite.

First, with crude oil prices soaring in the previous period, Saudi Arabia and Russia stated on May 26 that they were considering jointly increasing crude oil production, after which crude oil prices fell. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia and Russia have differences in increasing production cooperation. The implementation of the crude oil production increase plan is uncertain. On the other hand, the supply problems brought about by the geopolitical situation are still the core factors. Therefore, the related volatility caused by the increase in crude oil prices is more than expected.

Second, under the background that the strong US dollar superimposed US economy continues to grow, if the Fed’s interest rate increase process is accelerated and US Treasury bond yields and the US dollar continue to be strong, spreads between emerging markets and the United States will narrow, and exchange rate fluctuation pressure may increase. The warming of risk aversion in the market will accelerate the return of the dollar and the emerging markets will be under pressure.

Third, the risk of the recent geopolitical situation is still increasing.

In addition to some uncertainties that may create disturbances in market risk appetite, attention should be paid to the impact of the gradual release of policy provisions such as financial deleveraging. After the issuance of the new regulations for the asset management of the previous period, on May 25, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the commercial bank's liquidity risk management approach. The impact of the market on the advancement of related policies has not yet been fully anticipated and needs continuous tracking and observation. Taken together, the current market is in a period of uncertainty, and the risk mitigation window tends to narrow.

In terms of market allocation, it is recommended to pay attention to the TMT field in the second-tier consumer and manufacturing industries, and tap into profitable inflection points such as thermal power. Compared to last year's "Luma market" blue-chip focus value, this year's configuration level rebalancing is a major trend, mainly driven by the gradual restoration of corporate earnings expectations and policy changes. From the stability of earnings growth, combined with the risk appetite of structural differentiation, more optimistic about the second-tier consumer sector, especially benefiting the mass consumer consumption in the city three or four lines, as well as representatives of TMT manufacturing sector in emerging economies in the direction.

In addition, policies to promote the return of coal prices to a reasonable range superimposed the establishment of a profit turning point in the thermal power industry, the supply and demand environment, the common good background, the thermal power industry's performance improvement cycle is about to open, the relevant opportunities worth mining. Investment themes, recommended nuclear power, digital information, and other topics of regional opening sections.


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